This article was originally published in Hebrew on Walla.co.il under the headline “Netanyahu Knows He Can’t Fire Gallant Now, But He’ll Wait Patiently” by Ben Caspit.
Here is my translation of the article. You can find the original Hebrew version here.
In the lackluster coalition around the Prime Minister, the Defense Minister is the only one with some backbone, but it’s not enough. Meanwhile, Israel is abandoning the entire north in an unprecedented display of neglect, entering decisive days that will determine the fate of the conscription law, the war, and this disastrous government.
A year ago, on May 15, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finished a fish dinner at the Ashkelon marina. While doing so, he managed to dirty his shirt and joke with those around him (“Good thing Sara can’t see this”). Outside, on the pier, he ran into Nir Dvori and gave a brief interview. A clip from it appeared yesterday on my Twitter and on Rafi Reshef’s show: “We see anyone planning to harm us, to kill our citizens, to attack our cities, as a legitimate target at any time,” Netanyahu declared.
“What does that mean?” Dvori asked. “That Assad, Nasrallah, and even Sinwar can’t sleep peacefully now?” “I think they wake up at night with troubling thoughts,” the Prime Minister replied. “That much?” Dvori pressed. “You’ll need to see over time,” Netanyahu answered with a victorious expression.
Well, a year has passed. Ten million Israelis wake up at night with troubling thoughts. Their country is on its knees. The Israeli empire has been exposed. For the first time since the War of Independence, Israel’s enemies managed to capture bases and settlements in the south and forced the Israeli government to evacuate a large area in the north. The rapid loss of value that Israel experienced is unprecedented, reminiscent of what happened to Putin’s Russia after the fiasco of the invasion of Ukraine. But we are not Russia. Putin is now recovering and threatening Kharkov again. He has strategic depth, endless reserves, and a veto right. We have Netanyahu.
We are not recovering. The one recovering is Yahya Sinwar. One can’t help but recall the amazing prophecy of Yitzhak Shamir (former Prime Minister of Israel), who called the person responsible for all this – Netanyahu -“an angel of destruction” three decades ago. The destruction Netanyahu has inflicted on Israel in every field is unimaginable and unprecedented. He dismantled the social fabric, solidarity, and Israeli camaraderie. He destroyed the economy. He does nothing about the disintegration of academia. He leads to the weakening of growth engines like high-tech and technology. He is turning Israel into a pariah state. He has destroyed deterrence.
He is listed as the ultimate captain (Prime Minister) responsible for all the major disasters that have befallen us, from the Carmel fire, through Meron, to October 7th, but he is not willing to take responsibility, draw conclusions, or implement what he once advised Ehud Olmert (former Prime Minister of Israel). He clings to power, seizing the reins of government, and dragging an entire nation into the abyss. Around him is a horde of fearful, spineless minions who cooperate with all of this. History will judge them too.
Everything starts and ends with the “absolute victory.” The hollow slogan was coined by Netanyahu after he recovered from the depression and sweaty paralysis he suffered on Saturday, October 7, 2023, from morning until the next day. He searched for a catchy phrase to win back his wandering followers. He found one. He always finds catchy slogans. It’s a shame the man didn’t open an advertising agency in Boston. “Strong against Hamas,” remember? Or “One big Likud against all the left.” All those old, worn-out slogans that disintegrated in motion.
So what’s the problem with absolute victory? No problem, except for the fact that it doesn’t exist. It’s an illusion, a hallucination, a mirage. You don’t need to be a military historian to know that. A giant terror base (Gaza) built over decades, within a supportive population of millions, with the world’s largest tunnel network, vast ammunition and cash reserves, tens of thousands of fanatical terrorist fighters willing to sacrifice their lives, and a determined and bloodthirsty leadership, cannot be defeated in a blitzkrieg or swift maneuvers. To defeat Gaza, you need stamina, patience, and persistence. It takes time.
How do I know all this? Simple: we had a similar story, only much easier, in Judea and Samaria. Operation “Defensive Shield” began about 22 years ago. Its first phase lasted over four years. Yes, in the end, we managed to dry up the sea with a teaspoon and then operated the famous lawnmower. That operation continues to this day. Terror was defeated but not eradicated. Our fighters visit its nests nightly. This is possible because, in the West Bank, there is a Palestinian Authority that takes care of everything except security. It cooperates with our security forces. This is a fact.
When the IDF enters any refugee camp, the PA’s mechanisms disengage. It’s a kind of strange coexistence between the upgraded civilian control of the Palestinians themselves and Israel’s intrusive and uncompromising security responsibility. A kind of arrangement that emerged within circumstances no one planned, but the results are reasonable. Fact: no one in Israel (except for the usual pyromaniacs) thinks we should cancel the agreements with the PA and disperse it. On the contrary, the current full-right government recently took urgent measures to help the Authority keep its head above water. The reason: the collapse of the Authority is perceived, even in Netanyahu’s feverish mind, as a catastrophe. This is also a fact.
The same thing, only with much worse results, happened in other parts of the world: it took months and years to conquer terror cities like Mosul, Raqqa, Fallujah, etc. Cities much smaller than Gaza. Less dangerous, less trained, less armed, and less entrenched terror cities than Gaza. An enormous international coalition led by the U.S. faced them, with full legitimacy, endless ammunition, intelligence, technology, and manpower. And still, it took ages. And even after it ended, it didn’t really end. Fact: the American effort in Afghanistan and Iraq suffered a severe defeat.
Wars of this type require time, patience, and determination. Even after the enemy is defeated, the embers continue to smolder, the nests continue to thrive, and constant work is required. What Netanyahu did with his “absolute victory” was to build expectations, make empty promises, and create a false impression of the situation. He climbed a tree he cannot get down from. This is not the first time. He has been doing this his entire career. But this time, it is deadly. It’s dangerous. It’s existential.
In essence, “Mr. Security” is the weakest person ever elected to the position of Prime Minister here. The most frightened, the most panicked, the most defeatist. Ariel Sharon (former Prime Minister and a renowned military leader) defined it well when he said, “Netanyahu is, um, a stressed and stressed-out person, in any case of pressure he immediately panics, he falls into panic and loses his composure. I’ve seen him like this many times, not just once. That’s Netanyahu. A person who panics and loses his composure. To run this country, to face the most complex and difficult problems, you need the following: judgment and nerves of steel. Netanyahu has neither.
This stood out when Netanyahu opened the Western Wall tunnel and the bloody riots erupted. How frightened he was, how he sweated, how he hurried to Washington to find his new friend, Arafat. Or when he ordered (against recommendations) the assassination of Khaled Mashal in Jordan. How he panicked, how he trembled, how he sweated, how he released Ahmed Yassin and many other murderers and sent the antidote with Danny Yatom, Efraim Halevy, and Ariel Sharon to Amman to save Mashal. How he got cold feet in every round in Gaza against Hamas. How he tried with all his might to avoid any significant action in Operation Protective Edge, and succumbed to Naftali Bennett’s (former Prime Minister) endless nagging, almost forcing him into some tunnel action. And there are countless other examples.
The most ridiculous one relates to Sharon himself: the night of the “Banana Coup,” when a group of rebels in Likud against Sharon and the disengagement included many. More rebels kept a low profile, waiting for Netanyahu to join to come out and defeat the crucial vote on disengagement. Netanyahu hesitated. Sharon sat in the plenum without moving, like an ancient Sphinx statue. Netanyahu wandered, sweated, decided, and regretted, while the time for the crucial vote ran out. Sharon’s people were worried. They knew everything was hanging by a thread. “Don’t worry,” Sharon told them. “We need to handle Bibi,” they said. “Bibi will handle himself,” he answered.
And indeed, at the crucial moment, when the Knesset Secretary called his name, Netanyahu hurried into the plenum, disheveled and sweaty, and declared “in favor.” Thus, the disengagement passed. Thanks to him. It was only one of four important votes he participated in and supported. Anyone who now claims that the main criticism should be directed at Sharon, who initiated and brought about the disengagement, should consider that Sharon would never have allowed the Hamas monster to inflate to such proportions in Gaza. Never. He would have gritted his teeth, and restrained himself, but in the end, acted. Just as he did in Operation Defensive Shield. Under him, Yahya Sinwar would not have received 30 million dollars in cash monthly. I doubt he would have been released from prison.
In the Middle East now, there are three leaders in a bunker, real or virtual. The first is Hassan Nasrallah. Despite the facade, the Hezbollah leader still fears for his life and knows he is high on the Israeli Air Force’s target list. He almost never moves in the open air, and moves secretly, maintaining complete secrecy about his movements. The second is Yahya Sinwar. This is known. The man has been holed up in some tunnel for seven months, but quite pleased with himself. The third is Benjamin Netanyahu. A Prime Minister is afraid of his people. He didn’t attend the ceremony for outstanding soldiers at the President’s House, didn’t attend the Bible Quiz, didn’t attend the Israel Prize. He sent various ridiculous videos of himself and his wife. And of course, the traditional video blessing at the torch-lighting ceremony, which, for the first time since the founding of the state, had no audience.
Netanyahu thinks he can permanently turn his surroundings into a sterile area. He doesn’t have the courage to face his people. He can’t bear the truth being thrown in his face. The facts. The disasters he has inflicted on the country. This coward doesn’t measure up to his predecessor, Naftali Bennett, who stood at the Memorial Day ceremony with a bowed head and listened patiently to a long outburst of protest and shouting from bereaved families. “You are bereaved families, you are sacred,” Bennett said. His face was contorted with pain, but he stood there. He didn’t run away.
Netanyahu’s followers revealed this week the “brilliant” trick he played on Benny Gantz (former Defense Minister) regarding the conscription law. What a magician. What a genius. Instead of introducing some concocted bill that Gantz would reject, Gallant would oppose, and the Supreme Court would strike down, Netanyahu announced he would advance the law passed by the previous government, Gantz’s law. The euphoria lasted about fifteen minutes. After the magic faded and only the smell remained, it turned out that the previous law couldn’t be continued, it was just a bridging law for an interim period, it wasn’t related to the updated conscription outline Gantz submitted after October 7, and most importantly, with or without Gantz, it was another stinking trick that wouldn’t bring ultra-Orthodox into the IDF but would keep them in the coalition.
What we are experiencing now is a direct result of Netanyahu’s “brilliant tricks.” He lives from one brilliant trick to another. He always knows how to pull another trick out of his sleeve to escape another dead end and keep all the balls in the air. But these tricks are empty. They involve no real action, no important decision-making, and have no connection to the need to govern and secure the country. Instead of outsmarting Yahya Sinwar, he outsmarts Benny Gantz.
Instead of dealing with Nasrallah, he deals with Gallant. Instead of investing his energy in Israel’s enemies, he invests it in his political rivals. Instead of thinking 24/7 about the country’s defense and survival, he thinks only about self-defense and his political survival.
The man responsible for most of the destructive “containment” policy that allowed Nasrallah to build a monster in the north and Sinwar to mimic him in the south is Netanyahu. Olmert was the last one who tried to deal with both fronts, with considerable success. Sharon, before him, dealt with Palestinian terror. Netanyahu dealt with himself.
His one and only mission was to stay in power. He succeeded. He stayed in power. At this rate, soon there will be nothing left to govern. And as always, the country paid the price. The direct results of his brilliant tricks and legendary evasions are now scattered around us.
We come to Yoav Gallant (current Defense Minister). This week, he once again came out in defense of the state against Netanyahu. He issued a second strategic warning, after the previous time he was momentarily fired by Netanyahu’s craziness, and remained in his position when it became clear that the chair was about to fall. This time, Netanyahu’s dilemma was easier. He knew he couldn’t fire Gallant now. He will fire Gallant later. If there is a later.
Gallant earns his compliments honestly. In these times of trouble, he is the only one in Netanyahu’s coalition equipped with a backbone. I look at people like Avi Dichter, Nir Barkat, Israel Katz, Yuli Edelstein, and others, and wonder what they are thinking. What do they plan to tell future generations? How do they intend to justify the disgrace, and do they believe they can wash away the stain, purify the defilement, and disconnect from what happened here in recent years? They understand the situation well. They know its dangers. They hope for the disappearance of Netanyahu, his deranged family, and his unhinged entourage from public life, but they are not willing to lift a finger to make it happen. They are as accountable for what has happened and what will happen here as he is.
Relatively speaking, Gallant is a hero of Israel. Compared to the bunch of garden gnomes around him, he is a beacon of courage and sacrifice. But in a perfect world and a proper country, Gallant could be blamed. For example, ask him what his position is on conscription. He is the Defense Minister. Doesn’t he have a proposal? Doesn’t the defense system have a draft bill? How can that be? Why is he waiting for a universally agreed law to be presented to him? Why doesn’t he initiate such a law? He is responsible for the system, right? He is not the UN Secretary-General. He is the one in charge of the army. That includes conscription. He is not the VAR system or the referee. He is the center forward. He should score.
The same goes for the war. What Gallant said in his speech on Wednesday was simple: we are in a tough war, a war of survival, and the Prime Minister is making political decisions during it. He is driven by political considerations. Yes, that was the meaning of Gallant’s words. He knows the IDF is re-entering Jabalia and Zeitoun, and will re-enter other places, and will have to re-enter them again, and along the way, we will bury more and more soldiers, and he knows this is futile, senseless, and illogical. He knows this won’t lead to “absolute victory,” but to a quagmire and a mire like Lebanon or Vietnam. His conclusion is to give a speech to the nation. But he is the Defense Minister. He needs to focus on actions, not words. He and the Chief of Staff need to bang the table in the cabinet and make it clear they are not sending soldiers to die in pointless missions until the government makes real decisions that include a real mechanism to end the war.
Want an Israeli military government? Please. Don’t want it? Then please, an alternative. No more delays, no more dragging feet, no more stalling. The Defense Minister is the government’s appointee to operate the IDF. He needs to use his power. Don’t like it? Fire him. I think Gallant wouldn’t shed a tear if he were released from this disastrous government.
Meanwhile, Israel is giving up a region in the north. Such a thing hasn’t happened before. Interior Minister Moshe Arbel sat yesterday with Kiryat Shmona officials and heard alarming data. It turns out that 12% of the city’s residents have already decided to stay in Tiberias. The rest are scattered across dozens of settlements throughout the country, and according to estimates, about 40% of them do not want to return home. They’ve had enough. They’ve been abandoned and are pretty fed up.
The IDF is waging an attrition campaign against Hezbollah, with considerable successes and achievements. The army is doing its utmost within the imposed circumstances and limitations. But the other side isn’t a pushover. After everything ends, if we ever get there, we’ll need to find solutions for some surprises Hezbollah has prepared for us: its improved anti-tank capabilities, apparently based on a local (or Iranian) development of the “Spike” missile developed by Israel. They likely got hold of such a missile during or after the Second Lebanon War and managed to create something similar.
This isn’t a new practice. The Iranians build their drones based on Israeli models, as do the Turks. Either way, this missile allows Hezbollah to launch it beyond the line of sight, behind a hill or mountain, equipped with TV navigation, reaching its target with great accuracy. Another problem that the Air Force currently has no satisfactory solution against is the small drones, those that carry a small amount of explosives but are enough to cause significant damage. Recently, Israel has proven to be almost impervious to significant ballistic threats but quite vulnerable to simpler, less sophisticated, but no less painful threats.
We are entering decisive days. The fate of the conscription law and this disastrous government will be decided in the coming months. So will the fate of the war. Netanyahu is bankrupt on all fronts, in all fields, on all issues. Even the most ardent Bibi supporter cannot name a single, solitary, isolated achievement of this government. Its failures and blunders are spread around us and continue to pile up.
Above all, soldiers continue to fall. In the south and in the north. When you review the fresh list of fallen soldiers, you encounter many young names, some of whom recently completed basic training. They are not supposed to be thrown to the front in the natural course of things, but where are we and where is any natural course? The IDF is stretching its manpower to the maximum. In due course, we will need to hold accountable all those (and there are many) responsible for the gradual shrinking of the army over the past generation.
Meanwhile, the solution is to sharply increase the retirement age from reserves, extend mandatory service across the board, and increase the annual reserve duty days for combatants and officers. In other words: increasing the burden on those who have borne it for 76 years.
Netanyahu’s government’s solution to this situation? Simple. Not to mention elementary: military governance in Gaza and a draft dodging law. For those who forgot: military governance means tens of billions of shekels from the state budget sucked every year for maintaining and managing the Strip, and thousands, or tens of thousands of soldiers stationed there. Where will we get the money? Where will we find the soldiers? What does it matter now? We’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Statistics show that Netanyahu will pull out another trick at the critical moment.
This article was written by Ben Caspit and published at: https://news.walla.co.il/item/3664548.
I merely translated it into English.
