Shalom Everyone!
I hope this finds you well and safe. I’m thrilled to finally sit down and share some updates from my corner of the world. Although I’ve been eager to reconnect, the past few days have been packed with family gatherings during Passover and intense work on the second book in the Unmasking the Enigma series.
I’ve just completed a particularly challenging chapter on Iran, aiming to demystify its complexities in an engaging and accessible manner. This process required extensive research and deep thought, proving to be immensely rewarding.
As I mentioned, this is not an ordinary newsletter; this one is an article, and as such, I will focus on one topic which is the broader picture of this war. If you’re looking for slogans, open your TV. But if you truly wish to understand, read on.
The Middle-East’s Chessboard
Before I start, it’s essential to note that the situation here is extremely fluid, and what I write might evolve by the time you read this.
I’ve written about this in the past during the flood of updates and information, but I find it important to revisit it, ensuring you understand the full scope of what is happening in our world, particularly in the Middle East.
The attack of the 7th of October, orchestrated by Hamas and backed by Iran, aimed to halt the normalization process between Israel, the USA, Saudi Arabia, and others. This is part of a broader strategy by Iran and its allies—primarily Russia and China—to challenge the regional status quo and impact global politics and forces.
Russia has been under sanctions for the last decade, following the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Similarly, Iran has faced sanctions for several decades, which have expanded and intensified over time, particularly concerning its nuclear program.
These sanctions have forged an alliance between two powerful countries united by a common adversary—the West, led by the USA.
Russia and Iran
Russia and Iran have forged a strategic partnership largely based on mutual interests across several key domains:
- Geopolitical Alignment: Both nations often align their foreign policy objectives, particularly in the Middle East. They share a vested interest in diminishing U.S. influence in the region and commonly support similar actors in regional conflicts, such as their joint backing of the Assad regime in Syria.
- Military Cooperation: The two countries collaborate militarily, especially notably in Syria. Russia benefits from Iran’s influence with regional ground forces and militias, while Iran gains access to advanced Russian military technology and support.
- Economic Interests: Facing heavy sanctions from Western nations, both countries support each other in bypassing these economic constraints. Russia provides Iran with alternatives to Western economic partnerships and vice versa, including trade in sanctioned goods such as military equipment and technology.
- Energy Sector Cooperation: As major oil and gas producers, Russia and Iran have a common interest in stabilizing and potentially boosting global energy prices. They coordinate their production strategies to maximize revenue, which is critical given their reliance on energy exports.
- Nuclear Technology and Development: Russia assists in developing Iran’s nuclear energy capabilities, including constructing the Bushehr nuclear power plant. This cooperation not only aids Iran in developing its nuclear sector but also gives Russia significant economic and geopolitical leverage.
Additionally, Russia and Iran are endeavoring to connect their banking systems to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions, particularly their exclusion from the SWIFT global financial messaging service.
They aim to establish direct banking links that facilitate trade and financial transactions independently of Western-controlled networks. Russia’s SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages) and Iran’s evolving payment systems play crucial roles in this initiative, enabling transactions in their local currencies and reducing reliance on the US dollar.
For Iran, the relationship with Russia provides a powerful ally in a region where it has many adversaries and helps it to mitigate the impacts of Western sanctions. For Russia, Iran is a key strategic partner in extending its influence in the Middle East and countering U.S. and NATO influences.
This strategic partnership not only aims to solidify their standing against Western pressures but also to create an alternative global power structure that can operate independently of Western financial and political hegemony.
INSTC
Shall we complex things a bit?
This is where the details become a bit more complex, but stay with me. As we delve deeper, everything will become clearer, and by the end of this article, you’ll have a comprehensive understanding.
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a key component in the strategic reshaping of trade routes between South Asia, Central Asia, and Europe. Initiated to improve the efficiency and connectivity of trade across these regions, the INSTC is a multimodal network that streamlines the movement of goods.
That’s the ‘dry’ definition. Now, here’s where it gets more interesting:
The INSTC extends about 7,200 kilometers, incorporating ship, rail, and road routes for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe.
China
Although China isn’t directly involved in the INSTC, its BRI both competes with and complements it, affecting trade and power dynamics across Eurasia.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which includes projects like the construction of Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and the expansion of the Karakoram Highway, overlaps with the regions covered by the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
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Connecting The Dots
So, how is everything you’ve read so far connected to the events of October 7th and the ongoing Hamas-Israel war? To understand this, we must revisit the Abraham Accords.
The Abraham Accords, signed in September 2020, involved a series of groundbreaking bilateral agreements that marked a significant shift in Arab-Israeli relations. Brokered by the United States, these accords included Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and potentially Saudi Arabia and Sudan.
Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been progressively moving towards normalization with Israel, with the Crown Prince noting before the war, that “every day we get closer” to establishing formal relations with Israel.
These developments are not only pivotal in reshaping Middle Eastern diplomacy but also play into broader geopolitical strategies. For instance, India, while not a direct participant in the Abraham Accords, has shown support for these agreements as they align with its interests in maintaining and enhancing relations with Middle Eastern countries.
India’s role is more that of a supportive observer, but the improved relations within the region could potentially benefit its diplomatic and economic interests.
The Abraham Accords are part of what may soon be recognized as India’s Arabian-Mediterranean Corridor to Europe—a strategic initiative aimed at forming a coalition to counter the China-Iran-Russia alliance and reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian energy.
This alliance will create a parallel corridor, which underscores the complex interplay of regional cooperation and competition, impacting everything from energy politics to military alliances.
The Abraham Accords are part of what may soon be recognized as India’s Arabian-Mediterranean Corridor to Europe—a strategic initiative aimed at forming a coalition to counter the China-Iran-Russia alliance and reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian energy.
This alliance will create a parallel corridor, which underscores the complex interplay of regional cooperation and competition, impacting everything from energy politics to military alliances.
Let us ponder on the potential geopolitical shifts that might arise if the USA successfully implements a parallel corridor.
Such an endeavor could significantly impact the INSTC, particularly affecting Iran and Russia, whose economies are heavily reliant on this route due to the constraints imposed by Western sanctions.
The introduction of a competing corridor by the USA could divert trade flows, potentially isolating Iran and Russia economically and diminishing their influence in the region.
Now that we’ve outlined the global trade routes that shape world dynamics, we understand the framework.
Let’s consider how Iran and Russia, the countries that would be most affected by the establishment of a parallel corridor by the USA, might respond. How could they disrupt or significantly delay this new corridor?
The answer is straightforward: by starting a…
WAR
By interfering with its development, Iran, Russia, and China could gain time and power, simultaneously weakening the influence and alliances of the USA in the Middle East.
This strategic move would aim to preserve their own economic and political interests while challenging the expansion of Western influence in the region.
Does anyone still recall that Putin invaded Ukraine and that the war continues? Do the nuclear ambitions of North Korea or the tensions in Taiwan remain in global discussions? In the rapid evolution of international events, yesterday’s crises can quickly fade from collective memory, overtaken by the urgent
demands of a new world agenda.
This underscores how quickly global focus can shift, leaving room for strategic maneuvers by nations like Iran, Russia, and China to reshape regional dynamics almost unnoticed.
All of this will be accomplished by destabilizing the Middle East through the initiation of a war.
However, the approach must be tactful,
Acting too overtly carries significant risks; blatant aggression could prompt the USA to deploy thousands of troops, a scenario in which Iran, Russia, and China would likely be outmatched. Indeed, the USA possesses one of the strongest and largest military forces globally, and together with its allies, currently, no rival can confidently challenge its might.
So, how does one start a war without openly declaring it?
The answer lies in the use of proxies. In Iran’s case, these are terror organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, and various military militias in Syria and Iraq.
And do you know where else? at US universities, but I will save that discussion for next week’s newsletter.
For years, Iranians have nurtured Hezbollah in Lebanon, and over the last decade, perhaps even more, they have done the same with Hamas in Gaza.
Despite the fact that Iran is predominantly Shia and Hamas is a Sunni organization, they have bridged their theological divide. Historically, the Sunni and Shia split in the 7th century led to the largest rift in the Islamic world, with conflicts persisting through the centuries.
In the context of these radical regimes, old rivalries are set aside. Both Sunni and Shia groups can come together with a common agenda against the West and the Jewish people, whom they see as a representation of the West.
However, Iran did not engage…
What was the reason Iran and Hezbollah didn’t join the war on the 7th of October, we can only guess, and your guess is as good as mine. Some claim Iran didn’t know about it, but I will sharpen that by saying Iran did know about it. Perhaps not the exact time it would begin or how vast it was going to be, but they knew about it.
I think Iran preferred to avoid an open-scale war, at least until it finishes its nuclear program and has its nuclear bomb ready.
It took six months for Iran to officially join the war, on April 14th, and only after the hit on The Iranian General Mohammad Reza, which I wrote about in the first newsletter.
This marked the first time Iran officially attacked Israel from its own territory and not through one of its proxies.
But it was also the first time that an attack on Israel was thwarted by a Western-Arab coalition – the USA, Britain, France, Jordan, maybe Saudi Arabia as well, and others we may not know about, all worked together.
In the end, the Iranian attack on Israel accomplished the opposite of what it intended to do. The attack helped recover Israel’s faltering image in the eyes of the world.
When all this began, and until now, the world and so do we the citizens of Israel, had failed to understand how a small terror organization from Gaza managed to infiltrate, murder, rape, and conquer villages of the mighty Israel, and continued to drag this mighty country into an ongoing war, now entering its seventh month.
As we reflect on the intricate interplay of global politics and regional conflicts, it becomes evident that the stakes are high, and the outcomes are far-reaching.
The dynamics between major powers not only influence immediate military and economic conditions but also define the future of international relations. Understanding these complex relationships helps us grasp the broader implications of events that may seem distant but are intimately connected to our everyday lives.
I hope you enjoyed reading this article and found value in the topics discussed. Stay tuned for more discussions on related topics in the upcoming newsletter next week, where we’ll delve into the Port USA is currently building in Gaza and the war against the West happening within the universities, among other intriguing subjects.
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